Friday, July 18, 2014

The Improbability Principle

Coincidences, miracles, and rare events happen every day and author and renowned statistician, David J. Hand, has taken a statistical approach to explaining these phenomena. He has written a book (The Improbability Principle) and in it even goes so far as to say that these occurrences are actually quite common place and expectable. He has divided The Improbability Principle (and its explanation) into 5 Laws, like Newton did with his 3 Laws of Motion. I am not sure that I understand the math behind this principle but I do agree that miracles, seemingly unexplainable coincidences, and rare events do happen every day. Some of these coincidences are tragic. For example, Malaysian Airlines losing a second plane filled with commuters not that long after losing the first, even though the second plane’s whereabouts have been accounted for unlike the first. On the flip side you have the positive opposite of tragedy that renews our spirits and faith. The possibility of miracles and rare occurrences that celebrate the goodness and compassion of humanity or beauty and wonder that is our world all around us sustains my optimism. Before the book and without the proof verifying math,as I live and breathe in a complex improbable world I believe in the improbability principle.

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